Abstract
Results are presented of numerical integrations over billion year time scales of the orbital evolution of more than one thousand test particles on initially low-inclination, low-eccentricity orbits within the proposed Kuiper belt beyond Neptune. Particles which eventually crossed Neptune's orbit often showed long periods (up to several billion years) of relatively low-eccentricity oscillations punctuated by a very rapid jump to Neptune-crossing eccentricity. This flux may be the ultimate source of present-day short-period comets. It is found here that there exists a correlation between Liapunov and crossing times in the Kuiper belt. None of the particles in the study with Liapunov time scales greater than about 1 Myr actually became a Neptune-crosser in 4 Gyr. An intricate structure to the region between 35 and 45 AU is found at the end of the billion year simulation. Implications for the origins of short-period comets and the detectability of objects currently in the Kuiper belt are discussed.
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