Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: In 2020, cooking with polluting solid fuels was estimated to be responsible for 3,255 premature deaths and 172,643 DALYs in Rwanda. The Rwandan government has set an ambitious target of halving the proportion of the population using solid fuels in traditional stoves to 40% by 2024, mostly through scaling up adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for clean cooking. We report here modelling conducted for the Rwandan government to estimate the health impacts of this transition with different scenarios of LPG household adoption in years 2024 and 2030 (Sustainable Development Goals). METHODS: Three demand scenarios are modelled: the “Business as Usual” (BAU) scenario, and two interventional scenarios (Low and High Intervention Scenarios). BAU projects current demographic, market and industry trends unabated to 2024 and 2030. LIS adds the effects of policies and measures to improve access to LPG. HIS includes more aggressive assumptions regarding LPG availability and promotion, including increased consumer awareness through campaigns about the advantages of LPG cooking as compared with wood fuels. Health impacts of each scenario are estimated. RESULTS:In 2020, 5.6% of Rwandan households were estimated to be using LPG. This proportion is projected to increase to 10.4% in 2024 and 24.0% in 2030 under BAU; to 11.7% in 2024 and 31.2% in 2030 under LIS; and to 13.2% in 2024, and 38.5% in 2030 under HIS. Depending on the level of LPG adoption, the cumulative number of averted deaths was estimated to range between 2,590 and 7,656 between 2021 to 2030, and the cumulative number of averted DALYs was estimated to range from 135,716 to 403,664. CONCLUSIONS:To achieve the Rwandan government’s aspirational target of LPG adoption will require aggressive policies and interventions, but will in turn have significant health gains both in terms of reduced mortality and morbidity through reductions in exposure to household air pollution. KEYWORDS: household air pollution, LPG adoption, health impacts, Rwanda
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