Abstract
Research background: In the process of implementing the Paris Agreement (2015), Europe is a leader in the formation of new legislative initiatives in order to develop a set of effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. The European Commission approved the European Green Deal (2015) - a strategy for achieving the EU parameters of climate neutrality through the transition to a clean circular economy. Its main goal is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 by 50 - 55% from 1990 levels and achieve full carbon neutrality of the EU by 2050. As part of this strategy, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is being developed. The introduction of CBAM means a revolutionary transformation in the system of international economic relations. Purpose of the article is to identify and assess possible risks for producers and consumers, primarily of energy products after the introduction of CBAM, as well as the impact of these risks on Russian exports to Europe. Methods: The authors carried out a comparative analysis of scenarios for the implementation of CBAM in the sectorial and product segments of trade between Russia and the EU. Findings: The article contains comparative assessments of the beginning redistribution of international markets in the sectoral and product coverage of emissions, as well as an analysis of the unfolding contradictions in the verification of methods for determining the carbon footprint in the production chains of the real sector of the economy.
Highlights
Serious attention to the problems of climate change on an international scale began to be paid in the mid-1980s
The calculation is carried out on the basis of the physical volumes of Russian exports to the EU in 2020, the price of the European GHG emissions trading system (EU ETS) emission allowance is about 50 euros per ton and the EU benchmarks for the carbon intensity of these goods
Over the past 2-3 years, the efforts of the world community to create a legislative and regulatory framework to accelerate the processes of decarbonization of the economy have sharply intensified
Summary
Serious attention to the problems of climate change on an international scale began to be paid in the mid-1980s. More than 90% of quotas were distributed here free of charge due to the threat of loss of competitiveness of EU exporters due to the carbon leakage effect (Perino, G., 2019; Yu et al, 2021) It is associated with the possibility of transferring production with large volumes of emissions or consumption of energy resources to other countries where there are no such payments for emissions. Importers in the EU of CBAM products are required to purchase these certificates Their cost will be calculated based on the average emission price at the ETS auctions for the previous week. In Russia, after the publication of the CBAM scheme, the first calculations of direct losses of Russian exporters from the introduction of the EU carbon tax, taking into account Scope 1 and Scope 3, were made at the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies (IPEM) (SWAM, 2021). (cement – almost in 2 times) Accounting for scope 3 emissions can lead to a 10-fold increase in CBAM payments (given the complexity of determining the boundaries of the chains under consideration)
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