The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth, timber supply, and technological trends

Abstract

A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.