The Global Strategic Environment of the BRI: Deep Interdependence and Structural Power

Abstract

Lairson develops the theoretical framework of deep interdependence and structural power as a primary feature of the strategic environment affecting the design and eventual outcome of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. Deep interdependence is a result of the liberal global system established by the USA and is posited to create both opportunities and constraints for China, including the formulation of goals, the design of the BRI, and its ultimate success or failure. Specifically, China needs to develop a nuanced and accommodative set of policies and actions relating to mutual gains, governance through accommodative rules and institutions, and management of internal and interstate conflicts within the region. These propositions are analyzed through: a consideration of the closest analog of the BRI, the Marshall Plan of 1947–1950; the overall capacity of the Chinese government to formulate, manage, and execute the BRI project; the creation and management of the institutional analog of the BRI, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; and the implications for the BRI of the emerging Asian security relationship composed of India, Vietnam, Japan and the USA. Lairson asserts the BRI project will succeed or fail in creating structural power for China based on the ability to operate within a system of deep interdependence and structural power—but China’s actions in the South China Sea are in conflict with such aims, placing its eventual success in doubt.