The global solar radiation estimation and analysis of solar energy: Case study for Osmaniye, Turkey

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the prediction of solar radiation model and actual solar energy in Osmaniye, Turkey. Four models were used to estimate using the parameters of sunshine duration and average temperature. In order to obtain the statistical performance analysis of models, the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute bias error (MABE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. Results obtained from the linear regression using the parameters of sunshine duration and average temperature showed a good prediction of the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. In order to obtain solar energy, daily and monthly average solar radiation values were calculated from the five minute average recorded values by using meteorological measuring device. As a result of this measurement, the highest monthly and yearly mean solar radiation values were 698 (April in 2013) and 549 (2014 year) W/m2 respectively. On an annual scale the maximum global solar radiation changes from 26.38 MJ/m2/day by June to 19.19 MJ/m2/day by September in 2013. Minimum global solar radiation changes from 14.05 MJ/m2/day by October to 7.20 MJ/m2/day by January in 2013. Yearly average energy potential during the measurement period was 16.53 MJ/m2/day (in 2013). The results show that Osmaniye has a considerable solar energy potential to produce electricity.