The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft

Abstract

We analyze the costs of CO2 emissions mitigation measures available to aviation using a global aviation systems model. In that context, we discuss the relationship between mitigation potential and scenario characteristics, and how these interact with policy measures that increase the effective price of fuel, for example, ICAO’s CORSIA emissions offset scheme. We find that global fuel lifecycle CO2 emissions per revenue passenger km could be reduced by 1.9% to 3.0% per year on average by the use of a combination of cost-effective measures, for oil prices which reach $75 to $185 per barrel by 2050. Smaller additional emissions reductions, of the order of 0.1% per year, are possible if carbon prices of $50 to $150/tCO2 are assumed by 2050. These outcomes strongly depend on assumptions about biofuels, which account for about half of the reduction potential by 2050. Absolute reductions in emissions are limited by the relative lack of mitigation options for long-haul flights, coupled with strong demand growth.