Abstract
The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.
Highlights
Biological invasion, and human activities are important factors leading to global biodiversity changes, but among them, climate change and human activities have essential effects on the distribution of invasive species [1,2]
The potential global distribution of A. cordifolia was predicted by the Random Forest (RF) model
The results indicate that temperature is the common factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia in different regions
Summary
Biological invasion, and human activities are important factors leading to global biodiversity changes, but among them, climate change and human activities have essential effects on the distribution of invasive species [1,2]. Invasive plants (IPs) refer to non-native species that have been accidentally or intentionally introduced into habitats other than their current or historic native distributions and have adverse impacts on the economy, ecology, or environment, as they spread through the introduced area They display many characteristics, such as adaptation to a wide climatic range, environmental tolerance, rapid growth, and high levels of asexual reproduction [19]. There have been studies on IPs in local areas, usually focused on the impact of future climate change Most of these studies use climate factors as variables and use species distribution models for simulations and predictions. To better understand the impacts of these factors, this study combined climatic data with global human footprint data by using RF models to predict the potential suitable habitat of A. cordifolia under the current climate scenario, and those of the 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). The changes of habitat area, migration, and the influence of macro-environmental factors were analyzed, and they provided a basis for the ecological environmental protection and long-term protection of other plant species
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