Abstract
Abstract. We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project includes global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.
Highlights
Climate change presents a significant risk for agricultural productivity in many key regions, even under relatively optimistic scenarios for near-term mitigation efforts (Rosenzweig et al, 2014)
Over the last several years, many research groups around the world have developed global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to simulate crop productivity and climate impacts at relatively high spatial resolution over continental and global extents, with a huge diversity of methodologies and assumptions leading to a wide range of results
The core outcome of Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) is the creation and maintenance of an international community of modelers focusing on climate impacts and relationships to food security, resources, economics, land-use change, and climate feedbacks at continental and global scales
Summary
Climate change presents a significant risk for agricultural productivity in many key regions, even under relatively optimistic scenarios for near-term mitigation efforts (Rosenzweig et al, 2014). Consistent global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is essential for assessing the likely impacts of climate change and identifying system vulnerabilities and potential adaptations. Over the last several years, many research groups around the world have developed global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to simulate crop productivity and climate impacts at relatively high spatial resolution over continental and global extents, with a huge diversity of methodologies and assumptions leading to a wide range of results. In 2012 and 2013, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Rosenzweig et al, 2013) led a global Fast Track climate impact assessment in coordination with the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercompari-.
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