The global changes factors in international trade and russias military aggression: impact on the development of export activities in Ukraine regions

Abstract

Comparative analysis of trends and structure of world trade and trade of Ukraine in the international market, as well as the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the volume of trade in Ukraine and the world is carried out. It is established that world trade is characterized by more pronounced nature of the growing and declining dynamics in comparison with Ukraine's international trade, which is characterized by relative stability in the volume of export-import operations. It is argued that the main globalizing factors determining the trends in Ukraine's international trade today and in recent years are covid-19 pandemic, free trade zone with the EU and Russia's war against Ukraine. Peculiarities of Ukraine's cooperation with the EU in international trade in goods and services are analyzed. It is established that in the pandemic 2020 there was strengthening of Asian and American trends in the geographical structure of exports from Ukraine and European and American trends in the geographical structure of export services. The foreign trade in goods and services of the regions of Ukraine with the EU is analyzed. It has been established that Lviv oblast is the most integrated into the EU according to the European Integration Economic Progress Index, the share of exports of services to the EU and the share of exports in commodity trade among all regions of Ukraine, despite the covid-19 pandemic. The possible consequences of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine for the export activities of the state and its regions are analyzed. It is noted that Ukraine lost half of its export capacity in just one month of the war. This is due to the destruction of warehouses, production, freezing of production, as well as blocking the main export routes – the ports of Nikolaev, Odessa and Mariupol. It is established that in the future the following factors can reduce the export of agricultural products from Ukraine: reduction of the total area of crops, sown areas of export-oriented crops (including sunflower and corn) in favor of food crops (peas, barley, oats) for domestic consumption in wartime and the destruction of domestic granaries and elevators by the aggressor. It has been argued that Russia's military aggression against Ukraine as a factor in reducing export activity will not only lead to significant budget losses due to reduced export revenues, but will also threaten global food security. In view of this, the search for new alternative logistical ways to export goods to the world market is becoming one of the priorities in the implementation of Ukraine's export strategy in the near future.