Abstract
Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000-173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000-82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%-77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Highlights
Yellow fever is a flavivirus endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America
The clinical course of yellow fever infection leads to a variety of non-specific symptoms with severe infections potentially exhibiting fever, nausea, vomiting, jaundice, and haemorrhaging, which can result in death (Monath and Vasconcelos, 2015)
We extend the model of Garske et al, 2014 to account for yellow fever burden in South America as well as Africa
Summary
Yellow fever is a flavivirus endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. In the Americas, yellow fever produces extensive epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) and outbreaks of human cases (Mboussou et al, 2019). It is vaccine preventable, with a safe and effective vaccine available since the 1930s that has been introduced into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) of many countries (Region V, 2003). Yellow fever is transmitted by numerous vectors including Aedes spp. and Haemogogus spp. in Africa and the Americas, respectively. A component of the sylvatic reservoir system is in NHPs, and as a result of this, yellow fever cannot be eradicated. The clinical course of yellow fever infection leads to a variety of non-specific symptoms with severe infections potentially exhibiting fever, nausea, vomiting, jaundice, and haemorrhaging, which can result in death (Monath and Vasconcelos, 2015)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
