The Global Burden of Glaucoma: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study and Predictions by Bayesian Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to report the most up-to-date information about the global disease burden of glaucoma from 1990 to 2019 and to forecast trends in the next few years. Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used in this study. The prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of glaucoma from 1990 to 2019 were reported. Finally, trends in the years following 2019 were predicted by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. We showed that, globally, the number of prevalent cases was 3,881,624 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3,301,963 to 4,535,045] in 1990 and increased to 7,473,400 (95% UI: 6,347,183 to 8,769,520) in 2019, while the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased from 111.92 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 94.76 to 130.28 per 100,000] in 1990 to 94.68 (95% UI: 80.42 to 110.87 per 100,000) in 2019. The DALY number of glaucoma increased between 1990 and 2019, from 442,182 (95% UI: 301,827 to 626,486) in 1990 to 748,308 (95% UI: 515,636 to 1,044,667) in 2019. There was a significantly negative association between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and age-standardized DALY rates. The BAPC showed that the age-standardized DALY rate is predicted to decrease gradually in both males and females over the next few years. In summary, from 1990 to 2019, the global burden of glaucoma increased and the age-standardized DALY rate is predicted to decrease in the next few years. With the largest burden of glaucoma found in low-SDI regions, clinical diagnosis and treatment in such areas are more challenging and may warrant more attention.