The GEOS ozone data assimilation system: Specification of error statistics

Abstract

AbstractA global three‐dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone data and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off‐line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical‐space Statistical Analysis Scheme. This system became operational in December 1999.A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme and, in particular, of the forecast‐ and observation‐error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast‐error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data are sparse. Forecast‐error variance is assumed to be proportional to the ozone field. The forecast‐error covariance parameters were determined by maximum‐likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using χ2 statistics.The analysed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). The difference between the mean HALOE observations and the analysis fields is less than 10% at pressure levels between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root‐mean‐square difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global root‐mean‐square difference between SBUV observed and analysed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.