The geopolitical risks and prospects for Russia-Western relations in the Baltic region

Abstract

The article presents a conceptual vision of existing and future geopolitical risks and prospects for Russia-Western relations in the Baltic region. Emphasis is placed on relations with countries belonging to the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). Existing and future relations are considered within several important geopolitical and geostrategic tracks: Russia-NATO and Russia-EU, as well as bilateral relations with key global and regional actors. The most complex and turbulent relations are those between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). As the analytical basis of the research, the evolution of key strategic documents of Russia, including the strategy of national security of the Russian Federation in 2000–2020 was analyzed. Geopolitical scenarios of relations between Russia and the West in the Baltic region, including the conflict potential in the so-called “gray zone” located in the buffer zone between Russia and European countries, were shown. It is concluded that there are only two scenarios and associated geopolitical risks — the destruction or consolidation of the “gray zone” between Russia and the West, NATO expansion, the strengthening of cooperation between neutral countries and NATO up to joining, an armed conflict between Russia and NATO on the territory of third countries, an armed conflict between Russia and NATO on the territory of one of the NATO countries. For the Baltic region, the most sensitive areas are the following: Kaliningrad region, “Suvalki Corridor” zone, Belarus, Eastern Estonia, Latgale. In our study, we emphasize that the existing complex geopolitical background and tensions in relations between Russia and the West have created conditions for seeking new partners and allies, as well as strengthening and diversifying relations with proven and reliable partners. One of the key and traditional partners, and now allies, we see as China, which has a special interest in entering European markets and expanding its geopolitical influence in Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic region.