The geography of phylogenetic paleoecology: integrating data and methods to better understand biotic response to climate change

A Michelle Lawing

doi:10.1017/pab.2021.14

Abstract

AbstractDeeper knowledge about how species and communities respond to climate change and environmental gradients should be supported by evidence from the past, especially as modern responses are influenced by anthropogenic pressures, including human population growth, habitat destruction and fragmentation, and intensifying land use. There have been great advances in modeling species’ geographic distributions over shallow time, where consideration of evolutionary change is likely less important due to shorter time for evolution and speciation to occur. Over these shallow time periods, we have more resources for paleoclimate interpretation across large geographic landscapes. We can also gain insight into species and community changes by studying deep records of temporal changes. However, modeling species geographic distributions in deep time remains challenging, because for many species there is sparse coverage of spatial and temporal occurrences and there are fewer paleoclimate general circulation models (GCMs) to help interpret the geographic distribution of climate availability. In addition, at deeper time periods, it is essential to consider evolutionary change within lineages of species. I will discuss a framework that integrates evolutionary information in the form of phylogenetic relatedness from clades of extant closely related species, where and when there are associated fossil occurrences, and the geographic distribution of paleoclimate in deep time to infer species past geographic response to climate change and to estimate where and when there were hotspots of ancient diversification. More work is needed to better understand the evolution of physiological tolerances and how physiological tolerances relate to the climate space in which species occur.

Highlights

We are enduring a biodiversity crisis (Myers et al 2000; Pimm and Raven 2000; Brook et al 2003; Thomas et al 2004; Barnosky et al 2011), and harnessing all possible data to inform on biodiversity patterns through space and time is critical to better understand the history of life and to be able to set and accomplish conservation goals (Dietl and Flessa 2011; Rick and Lockwood 2013; Hunt and Slater 2016)
Because the ecological and evolutionary processes leading to adaptation, movement, and extinction occur over long time periods and because the Earth has experienced major alterations to geographic ranges and composition of flora and fauna in the past, it is critical to draw on a deep time perspective to investigate species and community response to climate and environmental change
My intention for this paper is to provide an entry-level discussion to various modern and paleontological data types and methodologies that can be integrated in analyses that span ecological, evolutionary, and geologic time

Summary

Michelle Lawing

Abstract.—Deeper knowledge about how species and communities respond to climate change and environmental gradients should be supported by evidence from the past, especially as modern responses are influenced by anthropogenic pressures, including human population growth, habitat destruction and fragmentation, and intensifying land use. There have been great advances in modeling species’ geographic distributions over shallow time, where consideration of evolutionary change is likely less important due to shorter time for evolution and speciation to occur. Over these shallow time periods, we have more resources for paleoclimate interpretation across large geographic landscapes. I will discuss a framework that integrates evolutionary information in the form of phylogenetic relatedness from clades of extant closely related species, where and when there are associated fossil occurrences, and the geographic distribution of paleoclimate in deep time to infer species past geographic response to climate change and to estimate where and when there were hotspots of ancient diversification. More work is needed to better understand the evolution of physiological tolerances and how physiological tolerances relate to the climate space in which species occur

Introduction

Conclusions

Literature Cited