The geography of Canadian parties’ electoral campaigns: leaders’ tours and constituency election results

Abstract

Party leaders are pivotal figures in election campaigns. Leadership effects on the voting decisions of individuals have long been studied using national-level survey designs. However, the potential for leaders to effect local constituency outcomes through strategic campaign visits has received little attention. Using campaign tour logs for the leaders of Canada’s five major parties in the recent 2000 federal election, we explore the geography and the strategy of leaders’ tours. Mapping the spatial strategy that governs which communities are visited, and which are not, we can assess the local electoral effects of tours. Our results show inter-party differences in the strategic deployment of a leader, and in the impact of a leaders’ visit on local electoral patterns. Our results demonstrate that leaders’ visits in most cases register a positive local effect, net of other influences.