The Generation, Use, and Misuse of PKs in Vulnerability/Lethality Analyses

Abstract

Abstract : Beginning with World War II and its aftermath, the area of ballistic vulnerability/lethality (V/L) was first defined as a specific discipline within the field of ballistics. As the field developed, various practices and metrics emerged. In some cases metrics were developed that were abstractly useful but bore no direct relationship to field observables. In the last decade, as issues concerning Live Fire strategies have gained importance, increased attention has been focused on V/L with the intent of bringing greater rigor and clarity to the discipline. In part this effort has taken the form of defining a V/L Taxonomy, which is a method of decomposing a series of concatenated complex processes into separable, less complex operations, each with certain specifiable properties and relationships. Using the Taxonomy, this report describes the most commonly used V/L metrics are a function of platform aggregate damage, reduced platform capability, and reduced military utility. We show that these three distinct and separable classes of metrics are linked by operators that are multivariate, stochastic, and nonlinear. We also show that it is useful to form probability distributions with respect to initial and boundary conditions in order to characterize damage, capability, and utility. Many defense community studies ignore these distinctions to the detriment of fundamental clarity. Examples are given and potential remedies described.