The gender division of labor and second births: Labor market institutions and fertility in Japan

Abstract

1. IntroductionVery low fertility rates in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, and East Asia have been a source of great interest for demographers in recent years (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002; Lesthaeghe 2010). Among the theories proposed to explain the emergence of what is termed 'lowest-low' fertility (total fertility rates of 1.3 or lower), theories emphasizing the unevenness of gender-role change have increasingly occupied center stage. Central among these is McDonald's gender equity framework, with its focus on the slow pace of change in men's and women's household roles compared to their increasingly equal participation in the public sphere, especially the labor market (McDonald 2000). Recent work has suggested that increases in gender equality are likely to help societies currently experiencing low fertility to move towards an equilibrium characterized by near-replacement fertility rates (Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider, Bernhardt, and Lappegard 2015).This paper seeks to make both a theoretical and an empirical contribution to the analysis of how gender equality is related to fertility. First, we bring the role of labor market institutions into the analysis, theorizing the importance of considering how employment norms and work culture affect men's ability to participate in housework. In doing so we establish the connection not only between women's roles in the public and private spheres but also between men's roles in these two spheres. Second, we bring East Asia more fully into the literature on low fertility, which has been dominated by research on Europe. We utilize individual-level panel data from Japan, one of the countries that has had persistently low fertility over the past two decades, despite government policy efforts to raise the birth rate. We employ an analysis strategy that models husband's contribution to household labor in the context of Japanese labor market institutions and then models the effect of husband's household work on the transition to second birth. In demonstrating how gender-role specialization in Japanese marriages is connected to the broader labor market context, we argue that Japanese labor market structure and workplace norms have a negative impact on Japan's fertility rate.2. The household division of labor and fertility2.1 Empirical studiesFollowing McDonald's gender equity perspective and the expectation that a highly gendered household division of labor in postindustrial societies is likely to depress fertility, in recent years a number of empirical studies have endeavored to test this relationship. At the macro level, Feyrer, Sacerdote, and Stern (2008) find a positive relationship in OECD countries between the average household work share of husbands and the average number of births.3 A number of studies using micro-level data find that increased involvement of fathers in childcare and housework increases the likelihood of a second birth. For instance, Olah (2003) compares Sweden, which has had a longstanding dual-earner/dual-carer family model, with Hungary, a country that has emphasized paid work for men and women but a more traditional division of labor at home. She finds that fathers' involvement in household work increases the probability of second birth in both countries.4 Using US data, Torr and Short (2004) find a Ushaped relationship between couples' distribution of household labor and the transition to second birth, with a higher probability of second birth for couples where the wife does most of the housework (the 'traditional' model) as well as for couples where housework is shared relatively equally between spouses.Studies using micro-level data from countries with a more traditional malebreadwinner model have produced somewhat mixed results. In her comparative study of Italy and Spain, Cooke (2009) finds that fathers' share of childcare has no effect on the probability of a second birth in Spain. In Italy, fathers' childcare time has a positive effect but the strength of the effect varies by mothers' employment status. …