The gas supply reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline network based on simplified topological structure

Abstract

Currently, as a universal clean energy, natural gas plays a greater role in industrial and civil energy consumption than it has previously. Any insufficient supply scenario has a severe impact due to the increasing use of power plants, chemical engineering, industrial production, and public sectors. It is essential to develop a methodology for analyzing gas supply insufficiencies that are caused by pipeline network malfunctions. This paper introduces a systematic method for evaluating the natural gas supply reliability based on the pipeline network. Primarily, the reliability of each unit in the pipeline network is derived from multi-variant distribution principles to initiate topological structure analysis carried out in the real pipeline network. Afterwards, the Monte Carlo simulation shows the random status of the topological network based on preconcerted failure distributions of facilities and pipes rather than estimating the reliability directly. Because the current transmission capacity is possibly excessive relative to the transmission task, both designed capacity and current supply capacity require stochastic simulations. After stochastic simulations of the market demand, a feasible random transmission requirement and a certain structure of the topological network are obtained from random simulations to calculate the total transmission capacity. Ultimately, according to the supply insufficiency level, there are deployable measures that could eliminate this influence.