The gap of water supply-Demand and its driving factors: From water footprint view in Huaihe River Basin.

Abstract

Climate change, population growth, the development of industrialization and urbanization are increasing the demand for water resources, but the water pollution is reducing the limited water supply. In recent years, the gap between water supply and demand which shows water scarcity situation is becoming more serious. Clear knowing this gap and its main driving factors could help us to put forward water protection measures correctly. We take the data of Huaihe River Basin from 2001 to 2016 as an example and use ecological water footprint to describe the demand, with the water carrying capacity representing the supply. We analyze the water supply-demand situation of Huaihe River Basin and its five provinces from footprint view in time and space. Then we apply the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to analyze the driving factors of the ecological water footprint. The results show that: (1) the supply and demand balance of Huaihe River Basin was only achieved in year 2003 and 2005. There is also a large difference between Jiangsu province and other provinces in Huaihe River basin, most years in Jiangsu province per capital ecological footprint of water is more than 1 hm2/person except the years of 2003, 2015, and 2016. But other provinces are all less than 1 hm2/person. (2) Through the decomposition of water demand drivers, we concluded that economic development is the most important factor, with an annual contribution of more than 60%. Our study provides countermeasures and suggestions for the management and optimal allocation of water resources in Huaihe River Basin, and also provides reference for the formulation of water-saving policies in the world.