THE GALACTIC CENTER WEATHER FORECAST

Abstract

In accretion-based models for Sgr A* the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate $\dot{M}$. Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, $\dot{M}$ may increase from its present value $\dot{M}_0$. We therefore reconsider the "best-bet" accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of $\dot{M}$. We find that for modest increases in $\dot{M}$ the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submm VLBI experiment. If $\dot{M} \gtrsim 8 \dot{M}_0$ this "silhouette of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for $\dot{M} \gtrsim 16 \dot{M}_0$ the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for $\dot{M} > 2 \dot{M}_0$ the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.