The Fuzzy–AHP Synthesis Model for Energy Security Assessment of the Serbian Natural Gas Sector

Aleksandar R Madžarević,Marija A Živković,Dejan D Ivezić,Miloš L Tanasijević

doi:10.3390/sym12060908

Aleksandar R Madžarević, Marija A Živković + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12060908

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Journal: Symmetry	Publication Date: Jun 1, 2020
Citations: 9	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Belgrade

Abstract

Natural gas is used for the production of almost 20% of total energy today. The natural gas security of the Republic of Serbia is an urgent strategic, political and security issue. Serbia is one of the most vulnerable countries in Southeast Europe, because it only has one supply route. This study is a contribution to efforts to better understand the factors affecting energy security through the implementation of a new methodology based on the fuzzy–AHP synthesis model for measuring energy security. This new methodology was used to identify the energy, economic, environmental, social and technical indicators that accompany energy security analysis. The fuzzy–AHP synthesis model uses the asymmetric fuzzy inference approach for an outcome finding with the asymmetric position of fuzzy sets. The most important characteristic of the proposed model is its ability to operate with numerical and linguistic data and universality of application. The result of the proposed model shows a quantified assessment of energy security and its trend in the future of the natural gas sector. It indicates an unacceptably low level of present energy security and a gas system very vulnerable to supply cuts if the current gas infrastructure remains as it is in the future.

Highlights

Energy is an essential ingredient for the world’s development
Analysis of the results of mathematical modeling of the energy security assessment for the natural gas sector in Serbia will follow the procedure algorithm described in Section 3 (Equations (11)–(17))
Based on the analysis of the partial indicators, three fuzzy numbers for the synthesis indicators A, S and E are defined in first level of the synthesis

Summary

Introduction

Energy is an essential ingredient for the world’s development. Energy represents a vital source of power for all social and economic activities and a unique part of the sustainable development puzzle.A key priority for almost all countries is the energy issue, the assurance of adequate energy supplies to sustain the country’s economy, new investments and market’s development [1].The energy security is one of the most important parameters in determining the current position/condition and in defining the future development of all countries and regions. Energy represents a vital source of power for all social and economic activities and a unique part of the sustainable development puzzle. A key priority for almost all countries is the energy issue, the assurance of adequate energy supplies to sustain the country’s economy, new investments and market’s development [1]. The energy security is one of the most important parameters in determining the current position/condition and in defining the future development of all countries and regions. Demand for energy in the region of Southeast Europe is growing, but supply sources are increasingly limited and unevenly distributed. As a policy issue, became interesting in the early 1920s. It was directly connected with WWI and oil demand for the military [3]

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