The future's four quarters: Proposing a quadrant methodology for strategic prototyping in infrastructural contexts

Abstract

Abstract In this paper I propose and demonstrate an experimental methodology for producing suites of complementary prototype stories with which to facilitate innovation and forecasting exercises in the global infrastructural sector. I construct a quadrant diagram in order to outline four possible near-future scenarios for 2025 based on the divergence of two high-level global trends. For each resulting quadrant, I select one or more “seed topics” related to the underlying suite-theme of global water stress and access scarcity, seeking in particular those topics which resonate with the scenario, and adding additional context where suited. I then present the four resulting prototype vignettes separately, introducing the seed topics and theoretical context, sketching out the “world” of the scenario in which it is set, presenting the prototypes themselves in synopsis form, and finally discussing the technological and social implications which emerge from each narrative, and their relationships with the scenarios from which they stem. Finally, I discuss the suitability of this methodology in the context of projects which focus on considering possibilities for infrastructural developments rather than evaluating discreet new technologies, and position it in the context of contemporary science fiction literature.