The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

Abstract

The level of yield variation of primary crops has a considerable effect on the vulnerability of agriculture. The main factor that makes the agriculture of Hungary so vulnerable is climate change, and technological development cannot compensate for its unfavourable effects. We examined the yield failures of the two major field crops grown in Hungary that occurred during the last 100 years. The goals of our study were to determine how often yield losses at 15% and 30% occur, what their probability is and whether the probability has changed in recent decades. The Wald–Wolfowitz runs test was used to determine the randomness of yield failures. A series of yield failures for maize and winter wheat were found to be random. Based on the data for 1985–2023, failure by 15% and 30% can be expected approximately every 8th and 19th year for winter wheat and 3rd and 5th year for maize. Winter wheat yield failure at 15% shows a decreasing trend in occurrence, while at 30% it increases. On the other hand, the frequency of maize yield failure increased at both levels. The consideration of historical yield data can help to determine the extent of crop loss to be expected in the long term to maintain sustainable winter wheat and maize production in our changing climate.