The future potential for Carbon Capture and Storage in climate change mitigation – an overview from perspectives of technology, economy and risk

Abstract

According to the recent IPCC reports, the effects from anthropogenic climate change effects are becoming more serious and actions more urgent. The global mean concentration of CO2, the most important Greenhouse Gas (GHG), in the atmosphere is now close to 400 ppm. The most comprehensive research efforts concerning safe levels propose that we should strive to keep the atmospheric concentration of CO2 below 350 ppm. This is also a more transparent global goal than using effects in the components of the climate system. Most scenarios show that the combustion of fossil fuels will increase in the future, while the development of renewables is still too marginal to stop this growth. The possibility that countries will leave fossil resources underground does not seem realistic. The only options in the short run to halt emissions of CO2 are the large-scale application of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in combination with increased energy efficiency. In the long run, we have to radically transform our societal metabolism towards greater resource efficiency, where renewables can play a more important role. The main barriers for implementation of CCS on a large scale are not technical, but economic and social. As long as the costs for emitting CO2 are much lower than implementing CCS technology, there will not be a market-driven development of CCS. A major challenge for CCS will be to achieve wide public acceptance, since this will also affect the future political attitude to it. This will require an open communication about safety aspects early in the planning phase, where it can be shown that safety issues can be handled, even in the event of major leaks of CO2. To assume a low probability of accidents is not a feasible way forward in the communication process. The future concerning CO2 emissions will be determined very much by actions of the biggest emitters. The developed countries have already emitted a large amount of CO2 and must now take a step forward to show that they are willing to invest in CCS technology. At this stage, it is reasonable to expect developed countries to take a leading role in developing the CCS technology on a large-scale. It is highly probable that developing countries like China will follow this path in the near future, since they have a clear ambition to take a lead in climate change mitigation in the long run and to avoid blame for a deteriorating environment.