The future perfect of evaluation

Abstract

Evaluation has emerged as a major social force. Of course, there has always been some evaluation in every field of endeavor. Otherwise, one could not tell good enterprises from bad. Progress becomes impossible without such value judgments. But in the latter half of the twentieth century, from about 1965 on, evaluation became a specialized profession with its own organizations, journals, and studies conducted by those who called themselves evaluators. In other words, dispersed activities became a professional practice. I see this professional movement as being fueled by the decreasing legitimacy of governments. As advanced capitalism breaks down the traditional social structures of society-the church, family, and community-it becomes more difficult to justify and to legitimate government actions (House, 1993). For example, only 20 percent of Americans trust the federal government to do the right thing most of the time, down from 76 percent only 30 years ago (Gore, 1993). And this lessening of legitimacy extends to other social institutions as well. Evaluation developed first and most extensively in the US because these trends have advanced further here than elsewhere. If such an analysis is correct then one can expect to see more evaluation in countries where economic and social developments are similar as well as in non-governmental institutions. Certainly, Canada and Britain have undertaken extensive evaluation activities, and such trends are apparent in many European countries, where evaluation societies and journals are being organized. Eventually one might also expect organizations like foundations and corporations to justify their actions. So the future for professional evaluators will be busy, at least until competitive means of legitimating public actions emerge. I do not mean to suggest that evaluation is used only for legitimation purposes without regard to its truth value. On the contrary, its power to confer legitimacy depends on its being perceived as accurate and honest, an extension in some sense of science, which still has considerable legitimacy in these societies, as fluctuations in sales of vitamins following relevant studies indicate. Without public belief in its truthfulness, evaluation can hardly serve to justify activities. So evaluation’s social utility and future depend significantly on its credibility.