Abstract
Biodiversity is of crucial importance for ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Using quantitative projections of changes in land use and climate from the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios, we project that reduction of habitat by year 2050 will result in a loss of global vascular plant diversity ranging from 7–24% relative to 1995, after populations have reached equilibrium with the reduced habitat. This range includes both the impact of different scenarios and uncertainty in the SAR relationship. Biomes projected to lose the most species are warm mixed forest, savannahs, shrub, tropical forest, and tropical woodlands. In the 2000–2050 period, land-use change contributes more on a global scale to species diversity loss than does climate change, 7–13% vs. 2–4% loss at equilibrium for different scenarios, respectively. However, after 2050, climate change will become increasingly important.
Highlights
Despite continued conservation efforts, biodiversity loss is estimated to be occurring at 100–10,000 times the background rate of the fossil record for the Cenozoic (May et al 1995, Pimm et al 1995, Duraiappah et al 2005)
We presented a species-area relationship (SAR)-based method to estimate the loss of vascular plant species under the four scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
In 2050, following these scenarios, 7% to almost 25% of all vascular plant species would be extinct when populations reach equilibrium, when habitat is reduced, i.e., in total 20,000–70,000 species
Summary
Biodiversity loss is estimated to be occurring at 100–10,000 times the background rate of the fossil record for the Cenozoic (May et al 1995, Pimm et al 1995, Duraiappah et al 2005). Several studies indicate the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem functioning and human well-being (Daily 1997, Reid et al 2005), the number of scenario studies examining the future of biodiversity is small. Such studies are generally limited in scope, drivers, or scenarios. Sala et al (2000) provided a global assessment of different pressures on biodiversity and showed that changes in land use were projected to be the major drivers of biodiversity loss, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and atmospheric CO2 composition.
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