Abstract
Predictions of widespread adoption of UAVs for every airpower task are overzealous. This article uses innovation theory to critically analyze the likely future of UAVs using a framework of expected benefits and costs of adoption across core air force missions: air superiority; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); rapid global mobility; global strike; and command and control (C2). While UAVs will certainly take on an expanded role in warfare, predictions of universal military adoption of UAVs are over-zealous because they fail to incorporate the total costs associated with adoption of new technology for a large organization.
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