Abstract
Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) offer great potential to improve efficiency on roads, reduce traffic accidents, increase productivity, and minimise our environmental impact in the process. However, they have also seen resistance from different groups claiming that they are unsafe, pose a risk of being hacked, will threaten jobs, and increase environmental pollution from increased driving as a result of their convenience. In order to reap the benefits of SDVs, while avoiding some of the many pitfalls, it is important to effectively determine what challenges we will face in the future and what steps need to be taken now to avoid them. The approach taken in this paper is the construction of a likely future (the year 2025), through the process of a policy scenario methodology, if we continue certain trajectories over the coming years. The purpose of this is to articulate issues we currently face and the construction of a foresight analysis of how these may develop in the next 6 years. It will highlight many of the key facilitators and inhibitors behind this change and the societal impacts caused as a result. This paper will synthesise the wide range of ethical, legal, social and economic impacts that may result from SDV use and implementation by 2025, such as issues of autonomy, privacy, liability, security, data protection, and safety. It will conclude with providing steps that we need to take to avoid these pitfalls, while ensuring we reap the benefits that SDVs bring.
Highlights
Will a day go by where we do not see a new story, controversy, or debate surrounding self-driving vehicles (SDVs)
Debate about the societal implications of SDVs often become pre-empted by discussions about widespread level 5 automation, where the vehicle performs all driving functions in all circumstances, which is not expected for several decades, so there tends to be less urgency to consider more immediate impacts
This paper reports on work from an existing project, the SHERPA Project,1 convened to evaluate five applications of emerging technologies and their potential societal implications by 2025; one of those technologies was SDVs
Summary
Will a day go by where we do not see a new story, controversy, or debate surrounding self-driving vehicles (SDVs). This paper is the first to provide such a comprehensive approach through the use of a ‘policy scenario’ methodology, providing a stakeholder-engagement-centred approach, to examine the impacts of SDVs by the year 2025. Debate about the societal implications of SDVs often become pre-empted by discussions about widespread level 5 automation, where the vehicle performs all driving functions in all circumstances, which is not expected for several decades, so there tends to be less urgency to consider more immediate impacts. There is a need, to consider nearer-term developments in the use of SDVs to effectively deal with issues that we face in the five to 6 years. The scenario presented in this paper is grounded on the views of experts in the field (generated in a 1-day workshop), stakeholder engagement (generated through outreach for iterations on the scenario), as well as integration of current scientific research in the field (literature analysis)
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