The future of the Mediterranean agri-food systems: Trends and perspectives from a Delphi survey

Abstract

The Mediterranean region is widely acknowledged as one of the most exposed in the world to the effects of climate change, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and land degradation, coupled with a nutrition transition of its populations. In such a context, to explore the evolution of the region is of both political and theoretical interest. This study presents the result of a scenario-building exercise, based on a Delphi method – an interactive forecasting technique – relying upon about 60 practitioners, experts and academics representing 19 Mediterranean countries and a wide range of disciplines and expertise. The present article has three main purposes. First, to identify the main challenges, trends and driving forces that influence the agri-food systems in the Mediterranean over a short (2020) and medium (2030) term. Second, to discuss the alternative policy responses to the challenges that the region will face in terms of water resource management, farming systems and agri-food value chains in terms of desirability and feasibility. Thirdly, to provide informed, evidence-based recommendations that might help different stakeholders to take action in the region’s agri-food sector. Based on this Delphi’s results, the study suggests that the gap between the countries in the South and the North of the Mediterranean in terms of challenges posed in water management, farming systems and the agri-food value chain is expected to grow. Experts agree that climate change is going to play a key role in the future of both sides of the Mediterranean, but with a differential impact in the sub-two regions. Nutrition-related challenges will exert a growing pressure especially in the Southern Mediterranean countries. A set of desirable and feasible policy option for addressing the Mediterranean food-related challenges are discussed.