The Future of the European Social Model. A Lecture on Europe at 50 (Die Zukunft Des Europäischen Sozialmodells. Eine Vorlesung Über Europa - 50)

Abstract

With the recent election of Mr. Nicolas Sarkozy in France to the Presidency of the French Republic, the entire question of the European social model and its connection to migration has become a hotly contested issue all over Europe. Is toughness on migration and neo-liberalism the answer to the European malaise? The present publication debates the most recent Eurostat data series about social performance in Europe. The optimistic social Keynesian model is contrasted with the pessimistic globalization-critical model. In view of the upcoming end of the so-called transition phases in migration, governing the European labor market regime, on may 1st, 2009, the author shows that German and Austrian fears about coming waves of migration from the East are really groundless. The recent experience of Austria, which experienced a profound neo-liberal transformation, is debated in the context of the European process to catch up with the United States by 2010. In this publication we draw some optimistic, socio-liberal conclusions about Islam and migration in the world system and in Europe, while we show at the same time that membership in the EU-15, by comparative standards, has dire long-term consequences in the world economy, and globalization does not fulfill many of its promises. The European political class thus should concentrate on reforming the EU, and strengthening the European social model, which is considered as factor of productivity. 2 key conclusions are drawn: • it emerges that the European Union, the way it is constructed, is not the answer, but part of the very problem of stagnation and deficient development • opening up to markets and unfettered globalization will not provide sustainable development to the European political economy We tested the effects of our new data on Muslims per cent of total population and net migration rates per total population from 1950 to 2000 on a combined Lisbon index of socio-economic development in 134 countries of the world, based on: 1. economic growth, 1990-2003 (UNDP HDR, 2005) 2. freedom from political rights violations, 1998, and 2006 (Easterly, 2002, and Freedom House, 2007) 3. Happy Planet Index (Happy Planet Organization) 4. Human development Index, 2005 (UNDP HDR 2005) 5. Gender development index 2004 (UNDP HDR, 2006) 6. Gender empowerment index, 2004 (UNDP HDR, 2006) 7. life expectancy, 1995-2000 (UNDP HDR 2000) 8. Life Satisfaction (Happy Planet Organization) 9. freedom from unemployment (UN statistical system website, social indicators) 10. eco-social market economy (GDP output per kg energy use) (UNDP HDR 2000) 11. the Yale/Columbia environmental sustainability index (ESI-Index), 2005 12. female economic activity rate as % of male economic activity rate (UNDP HDR 2000) 13. freedom from % people not expected to survive age 60 (UNDP HDR 2000) 14. freedom from a high ecological Footprint (Happy Planet Organization) 15. freedom from a high quintile ratio (share of income/consumption richest 20% to poorest 20%) (UNDP HDR 2005) 16. freedom from civil liberty violations, 1998, and 2006 (Easterly, 2002, and Freedom House, 2007) 17. freedom from high CO2 emissions per capita (UNDP HDR 2000) By using the well-established UNDP indicator construction method, a final analysis combines the 17 indicators of the model into one single and combined global Lisbon process indicator. It is shown that globalization negatively affects the process, while the presence of a larger Muslim population among the total population is positively related to the Lisbon performance. Switzerland, Iceland and Austria lead the world league of achievements, while the reference country United States is only ranked 38th among 134 countries.