The Future of the European Community

Abstract

In the last section of his monumental study The Rise and the Fall of the Great Powers (1500-2000), Paul Kennedy looked forward to the 21st Century. His argument on changing power relations in world politics is well known, and so may be summarized briefly. The bipolar order of the postwar era tends to dissolve. The two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, are declining powers, both victims of imperial overstretch. On the other hand, new powers are on the rise: Japan, Germany, and perhaps China. Yet, in the century to come there may be another superpower bending the course of modern history back to its starting point in 1500: Europe. More precisely, the European Economic Community (EEC). It has the chance to become one of the world centers of economic and political power. The history of the modern state system had been, for more than 400 years, determined by conflict and war between the major European powers for hegemony. The century to come may witness the emergence of an economically and politically united (Western) European power which then acts as a collective actor in world politics. Kennedy concluded that Europe as represented chiefly by the European Community (EC) remains an enigma (Kennedy, 1987, p. 488). There is no doubt that Europe possesses the economic and military potential to be the fifth world power. However, Europe is not yet a sovereign nation-state but a community of states that differ considerably in their history, their economic and military strength, and their political interests and aspirations. Therefore, the problem of Europe is its unification: If one considers Europe ... as a power-political unit in the global system, the most important issues it faces are clearly: how to evolve a common defense policy for the coming century which will be viable even in what may be an era of significant change in the international power balances;