The Future of the EU's Security Role in a Transformed East Asia

Abstract

This paper starts by arguing that the European Union (EU) had only a very limited role in post-WWII East Asian security because of (1) great power dominance in the region and (2) numerous weaknesses internal to the EU. However, we claim that despite current difficulties the EU’s 'capabilities-expectation gap' is being overcome as the East Asian region is entering a transformation stage. Furthermore, we argue that the EU will continue to strengthen and that its security role in East Asia will increase in the future. The result will likely be that the Union, along with allies, will emerge as a more important actor in some critical regional security issues, including sea-lane protection and the North Korean situation. First, we employ Power Transition Theory to discuss the changing regional power structure - conditioned by the relative decline of U.S. dominance vis-a-vis China - which provides opportunities for the EU to involve itself in East Asian security affairs. We focus particularly on the EU’s ability to promote East Asian regionalization. Second, we show that institutionally the EU is approaching a position wherein it can make greater (although limited) CFSP/CSDP engagements, especially via cooperation with the U.S. and some regionally important countries in East Asia. Moreover, its growing interests in East Asia will compel it to develop a more unified will to use its CFSP/CSDP instruments - in particular those associated with peace-keeping/peace-making and humanitarian operations - and overcome the capabilities-expectation gap.