The Future of the Alternatives Energies: A Forecast Based on Technological Forecasting Techniques

Abstract

Bearing in mind the dynamics associated with long structural waves, and making use of technological forecasting tools, a logistic substitution and a Delphi technique, three scenarios are built and analysed: an exploratory one (logistic substitution), a Delphi-based one, and another one resulting from the combination of the two previous ones. In general terms, the indications of the Delphi survey confirm the dynamics of the logistic substitution, even if considering different time spans. Thus, it can be concluded that a substitution of the non-solid hydrocarbons for the alternative energies sources will happen in the future. Our study points out to the leadership of the alternative energies as the main primary energy by 2050-2070. In other words we can say that a new techno-economic paradigm, based on a more sustainable energy regime, will still burgeon in the present century. In this new energy regime the renewable energies will play an essential role, being able to assume the leadership as the main primary energy source. However, in the path toward this future, the role of the State will remain fundamental, but in present and near future it will be mainly related to the question of defence in the struggle against energy dependence.