The future of Sustainable Biofuels towards the 2°C target: forecasting process, technologies and sector demands

Abstract

Introducing sustainable fuels in the different transport fields in the EU is a very challenging goal, but also a clear priority in the EU decarbonization strategy. In fact, the transport sector is extremely rigid and regulated, with consolidated norms and standards and well-defined economics. Adding more oxygenated components to the fuel mix is also limited by the so-called blend-wall: thus, the share of renewable drop-in hydrocarbons has been recently growing worldwide and in the European Union. However, as a large part of these relates to lipids, the supply of sustainable feedstock has become the major critical element of the value chain. Fast-growing demand from new sectors as Aviation also emerged, that together with Heavy Duty and Maritime represent the focus of the EC strategy, complementary to the electrification of the road transport, passenger cars and light duty vehicles. Introducing innovative processes at full commercial scale requires to overcome the Mountain of Death of processes, where the bankability of not yet demonstrated technologies is the core problem. This work addresses the impact of the EU policy scenario, depicting the status of the different process and technologies, both Bio-based and Recycled Carbon, on the Mountain of Death.