The future of Southern Africa: what prospects after majority rule?

Abstract

In the debates about a post‐apartheid future, the prospects for the region as a whole have been ignored. They depend first on the position of southern and South Africa in the global division of labour: this has worsened more than most areas since 1950 – even South Africa is more dependent today on exporting primary products; and regional trade, despite the Southern African Conference on Coordination and Development (SADCC), is declining. This deterioration could continue under the redefinition of economic activities now occurring in the world economy. These prospects also reflect the inherited realities: over and above the modest efforts of SADCC, southern Africa's long relations with the South African economy make it into a whole that is more than just a geographically specific set of peripheral states. Three possible scenarios are explored: the region's renewed and enhanced subordination to an apartheid‐free South African economy; the break‐up of regional ties and the subordination of each of the countries as separate ‘peripheries’ of one section or other of the developed core, as it itself is being redefined between the North Atlantic and Pacific; an alternative, equitable, cooperative regional association, embracing SADCC and South Africa. In the light of historical experience in southern Africa and elsewhere, this latter will face severe odds, cannot be left to dominant interests, and is only possible with regional alliances of anti‐systemic forces.