Abstract
We used detailed industry data to analyse the impacts of expected further cost reductions on the competitiveness of solar power in Britain, and assess whether the solar market can survive without support in the near future. We investigated three solar power markets: large-scale, ground-mounted “solar farms” (defined in our analysis as larger than a 5000 kilowatt system); commercial roof-top (250 kW); and residential rooftop (3 kW). We found that all three would be economic without support in the next decade. Such an outcome assumes progressively falling support under a stable policy regime. We found that unsubsidised residential solar power may be cheaper with battery storage within the next five to 10 years. Unsupported domestic solar battery packs achieve payback periods of less than 10 years by 2025. That could create an inflexion point driving adoption of domestic solar systems. The variability of solar power will involve some grid integration costs at higher penetration levels, such as more frequent power market scheduling; more interconnector capacity; storage; and backup power. These costs and responses could be weighed against non-market benefits including the potential for grid balancing; lower carbon and particulate emissions; and energy security.
Highlights
To date, European countries have supported the growth of solar photovoltaic (PV), with the goals of cutting carbon emissions, boosting energy security and nurturing a clean technology sector
Evidence from rapid cost reductions and capacity growth suggests that solar power will prosper without support
Underlying cost data were based both on published commercial projections, and interviews with multiple installers, developers and manufacturers in the industry
Summary
European countries have supported the growth of solar photovoltaic (PV), with the goals of cutting carbon emissions, boosting energy security and nurturing a clean technology sector. As these countries cut support, the industry may appear at a cross-roads. Evidence from rapid cost reductions and capacity growth suggests that solar power will prosper without support. The last few decades shows solar module costs have fallen by about 20% for every doubling in installed capacity [1]. Recent market growth shows the emergence of solar power as a serious global energy player. Electricity is no longer generated exclusively by huge, centralised utilities, instead by hundreds of thousands or millions of households, with 1.5 million solar installations in Germany and more than 600,000 in Britain [3,4]
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