The future of services in rural England: The drivers of change and a scenario for 2015

Abstract

Fostering better and more equitable access to services in rural England needs to be more firmly grounded in an appreciation of a rapidly changing context. Accordingly, the research presented in this paper, undertaken for the most part in 2005, has sought to establish the changing nature and intensity of the demand by rural households for services over the next few years, likely changes in the factors shaping the supply of such services, and the expression of those likely changes in demand and supply in a scenario of rural service delivery in the year 2015. The focus is upon: services for rural residents rather than for rural businesses or rural service outlets as such; services provided for those residents by any sector, whether statutory, commercial, voluntary or community; and services delivered by any means, including fixed-location outlets, mobile units, home delivery and information and communication technology (ICT). Thus, the work has involved an exploration of the likely drivers of change affecting either demand or supply rather than a reliance on a mechanistic forward projection of existing or putative trends. On the demand side, attention has been paid to various drivers which are likely to change the size and content of the ‘basket of services’ that England's rural residents will demand by 2015. These drivers are demographic and social change, cultural change, disposable income and government policies. Research on the supply side has focused on how services are likely to be delivered to rural residents in 2015—a dimension that will have its own drivers of change. The concept of ‘manner of supply’ is explored with reference to delivery outlets (fixed, mobile, home delivery, e-delivery), settlement hierarchy (village, small town, larger town) the timing of delivery (e.g. flexible hours and 24/7 availability) and what is termed the ‘governance of supply’, to include the role of the public, private, voluntary/community sectors, partnerships, etc. With that in mind, the list of principal supply drivers again includes demographic, social and cultural change, especially in relation to the endowment of social capital in rural areas; the diffusion of new technology, notably ICT and especially as it may affect intra-business, business-to-business, and business-to-household communication; government policies at the national, regional and local levels; and competition and the changing corporate policies of the various service suppliers. Reflecting on all those drivers with the help of a wide range of interviews and focus groups has produced a scenario of 18 mutually consistent statements all relating to the year 2015. This scenario indicates a need to anticipate, monitor and respond to the likelihood that, left unchecked, many of the anticipated developments will be socially regressive. It highlights a need to put more emphasis on increasing the human and social capital of rural areas; on facilitating locally tailored responses to the various challenges; and on the need to foster a more co-ordinated planning of service delivery across both the spatial and social dimensions. With hindsight it can be seen that one remarkable omission from the scenario is any mention of the potential impact of climate change on the delivery of rural services. This was not raised by any participant in the research process, an object lesson on how an issue can rise from virtually nowhere to the top of the political agenda in a very short time. A note on this phenomenon is set out as a postscript at the end of the paper.