The Future of Liberal Order in East Asia

Abstract

What is the future of the liberal international order in East Asia? The region is in transition, but in what direction is it heading? Is it moving in a liberal direction—towards a more open and loosely rule-based order organized around shared principles and multilateral cooperation? Or is it moving in the opposite direction—towards conflict, fragmentation, balancing, and competing spheres of influence? In this chapter author G. John Ikenberry argues that, remarkably, there are powerful forces that are simultaneously undermining and reinforcing liberal international order. While the old foundations of American-led liberal order are weakening, new constituencies and demands for open and loosely rule-based relations are also emerging. Ikenberry begins his chapter with a discussion of the varieties of international order, placing liberal internationalism—and its varieties—within a wider historical and conceptual context. He then explores the “global balance sheet” of forces that are both undermining and reinforcing liberal international order. Lastly, he argues that liberal international order—within East Asia and beyond—is not disappearing. Ikenberry points to opportunities where the United States and China might agree on common principles and rules that reinforce openness and cooperation within a reformed regional and global order.