The Future of Indian Agriculture

Abstract

Indian agriculture is going through crisis as well as transformation. Crisis in terms of supporting the livelihoods of the rural communities and transformation in terms of changes that are different from the experiences of the last halfa century, especially after the green revolution of 1960s and early 1970s. As the profitability of agriculture and its potential to meet the cash needs of the farmers is on the decline more and more people are considering quitting agriculture as their main source of income. While proportion of people in this category varies depending on the monsoon and the market, the desperation is clear in the sector and majority of the farmers don't see their kin facing the uncertain prospects. As a result, changes in terms of composition of farmers (especially age and educational status of the farmers and land use) are changing. Apart from cash needs, farmers are facing new constraints of labour shortages, varying climate, etc., which are not only influencing the crop decisions but also adding to the desperation. The reasons for this situation originate from our inheritance (agrarian structure, policies, etc) though some of them are from very recent past. The book under review written by Prof. Y. K. Alagh, one of the doyens of Indian agriculture (contributed as a researcher as well as policy maker), provides a lucid and comprehensive narration of Indian agriculture since independence. Apart from the introductory chapter, the book is organised in four parts viz., agricultural demand, meeting demands with growth; investment and technology and lessons and policies. Introductory chapter sets the background and overview of the book. Prof. Alagh narrates the inheritance of agricultural policies since green revolution and explains the deceleration and pickup of agricultural growth over the years. It is argued that Indian agriculture continues to be demand driven and this is expected to accelerate in future. Chapter two delves deeply into the factors behind the demand for agricultural produce viz., population, changes in demand for food and feed, food security, poverty, income distribution and food subsidies. This chapter provides an exhaustive review of all the important studies dealing with these aspects. Demand for agriculture produce is moving away from cereals and food grains in favour of milk and milk products; edible oils, sugar, etc., though there are variations between different estimates. It is shown that the population dependent on agriculture and the share of rural population is declining faster than the official projections (Chapter 3). It is argued that the present plans exclude 10 percent of the urban population.