The Future of Indian Agriculture

Abstract

IN a survey and a forecast of the next twenty years in India (Journal of the Royal Central Asian Society, vol. 19, July 1932), Lieut.—Col. Sir Arnold Wilson makes a strong plea for the introduction of scientific method into public affairs. He predicts that in twenty years time the population of Asia will have increased by at least 20 per cent, and that in India alone the numbers may have grown to 427 millions. These figures mean that the great problem of the future will be that of food supply. Over the whole of Asia the predominant occupation is agriculture, while-in India at least the cultivable area increases very slowly and seems to have reached the limit except for the redemption of barren areas by irrigation. Figures tend to show that in India the food yield has not kept pace with the growth of population, but that the gap has been partly filled by a decrease in the export of grain. Sir Arnold Wilson foresees the dwindling of this export trade and the growth of an import trade in wheat. To balance this, India will have to develop an export of other primary products, but the tendency will be to utilise these at home. An import of fertilisers will, however, be essential, for on the extended use of these in agriculture lies one of the few hopes for the avoidance of famine in the future and the maintenance of the present standard of living, low as it is.