The future of human evolution: Toward an understanding of possibilities

Abstract

Abstract It is widely believed that our species faces the very real possibility of extinction in the not too distant future, either by a nuclear holocaust or through irreversible environmental destruction, and that as we are now constituted biologically and socially this outcome is likely. That perception raises the question of an evolution to another state as a means of avoiding extinction. This paper examines the options open to us for such an evolution and evaluates each for its effectiveness and safety in avoiding a near term global catastrophe. The requirements for a viable evolution are first developed. The kinds of evolution that have been advanced in the past are then evaluated: natural biological evolution, artificial biological evolution, an evolution of human consciousness and an evolution to a Utopian state. All these options are found to be ineffective in varying degrees, and to entail probably unacceptable risk. Finally, a type of social evolution, called here a “sufficient evolution,” is developed and evaluated. The analysis suggests strongly that a sufficient evolution, possibly enhanced by an evolution of consciousness, is by far the most viable option for avoiding a near term global catastrophe.