Abstract

The growth rate in futures volume has leveled off worldwide, and the market share of the U.S. exchanges has declined. In a period of limited growth, the competition for market share between the open-outcry exchanges and their competitors—the OTC market and the electronic trading systems—will intensify. Market share will be determined by which trading system offers participants the lowest transaction costs. During the next decade, technological innovations will determine the long-run viability of the exchanges.

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