The Future of Frozen Conflicts: Understanding the Evolution of Russia's Strategy in the Near Abroad and What is Next

Abstract

"Frozen conflicts and the near abroad are concepts that have defined Russia's security policy since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Firstly, in this paper, we will try to explain how the Kremlin sees its near abroad and how it defines it as part of its sphere of influence. Consequently, it describes its interventions and its inevitable clash with the West. Secondly, we want to frame frozen conflicts in two periods with defining characteristics. Each was marked by who held power in the Kremlin and Russia's economic and military situation at the time. In the end, we want to reflect on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the future of these two concepts. Obviously, the outcome will obviously influence Moscow's ability to project power in the near future and its use of frozen conflicts to achieve this. Keywords: frozen conflicts, near abroad, security policy, Ukraine, Russia"