Abstract
Contrary to the assumptions underlying many of current energy and climate policies, the prices of fossil fuels have fallen and may remain at the new ‘normal’ levels. In the medium term, Iran and Iraq have considerable potential to increase their outputs, and the new shale technologies will gradually globalize. Longer term, new technologies in electricity generation, storage, and smart demand-side technologies, together with electric cars and the shift towards digitalization and new electricity-based technologies in manufacturing, will increase demand for electricity, but not fossil fuels. These new and emerging technologies, rather than international agreements and the promotion of current generation renewables, will probably bring fossil fuel dominance to a gradual close. To facilitate decarbonization, energy policy should be directed at enhancing R&D and next generation renewables, instead of supporting existing ones.
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