Abstract
The present paper addresses the impact of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Foresight and the resulting STI policy thereof on the critical issue of future industry studies, the demand for employment.The impact evaluation exercise relating STI Foresight and employment proposed here converges and integrates different scientific sectors such as the interdependence between employment and welfare framework; the role and weight of technology change to employment dimension; the prospects of emerging and future technologies impacting employment in future industry; the contribution of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies to promoting the generation and real application of new technologies.The paper follows the premise that STI Foresight, as well as Future Technology Analysis, offer a robust basis for the elaboration and monitoring of STI policies with anticipatory intelligence.The core of the paper is dedicated to address the main question of how to identify and choose variables and indicators able to reflect vectors towards the future of employment. The selected vectors are referred to cross effects, trends, and time scales. As far the relationship of technology and employment is concerned, the paper examines cross effect impacts resulting from an input-output analysis, trends indicated in Future Technology Analysis, and time scaling of the technology lifecycle. These parameters are meant to constitute the basic elements for impact evaluation algorithms. In this connection, the paper proposes concepts, measurement techniques, and methods for the evaluation of foresight exercises influencing future changes on employment.Linking policy-making, Foresight, and specific future-looking themes, the paper offers building blocks for constructing standards for the evaluation of foresight exercises.
Highlights
Linking policy-making, Foresight, and specific futurelooking themes, the paper offers building blocks for constructing standards for the evaluation of foresight exercises
This paper is an output of the author’s line of research dedicated to the theoretical and empirical conceptualization of evaluating the impact of foresight exercises.1. It addresses the impact of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Foresight and the STI policy resulting thereof on a critical issue of future industry studies, the demand for employment
What constituted the pillars of the modern socioeconomic framework, where salaries and taxes of the formally employed population gave rise to a complex and interlinked economic formula combining consumption, credits, savings, and public goods as well as social services and basic infrastructure, such as education, health, mobility and shelter, all has came under risk
Summary
Linking policy-making, Foresight, and specific futurelooking themes, the paper offers building blocks for constructing standards for the evaluation of foresight exercises. This paper is an output of the author’s line of research dedicated to the theoretical and empirical conceptualization of evaluating the impact of foresight exercises.1 It addresses the impact of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Foresight and the STI policy resulting thereof on a critical issue of future industry studies, the demand for employment. The present exercise considers the real prospects of emerging and future technologies impacting employment in the industry of the future as was discussed by Frey and Osborne [Frey, Osborne, 2015] Another important background feature here is the contribution of STI policies in promoting the creation and real application of new technologies.
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