The future of droughts in Iran according to CMIP6 projections

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is exerting immense pressure on water resources in Iran. This study investigates future precipitation and meteorological droughts across the country considering performances of 41 General Circulation Models (GCMs). The findings indicate a significant increase in Long-term Average Annual Precipitation (LAAP) across Iran with an overall north-to-south increasing gradient, particularly in areas prone to extreme events. However, focusing solely on LAAP is misleading. Projected precipitation reveals substantial inter-annual variability, impacting both the severity and duration of meteorological droughts. For instance, 100-year return period droughts are expected to intensify in severity (SSP1-2.6: 4-91%, SSP8-5.5: 46-204%) and duration (SSP1-2.6: 19-76%, SSP8-5.5: 40-127%) across most regions, except the Persian Gulf coastal zone, where droughts may become less severe (SSP1-2.6: 23%, SSP8-5.5: 23%) and shorter in duration (SSP1-2.6: 27%, SSP8-5.5: 10%). Additionally, bivariate frequency analysis suggests that major droughts could become significantly more frequent in the future.