The future of apitourism in Iran based on critical uncertainty approach and DEMATEL/COPRAS techniques

Abstract

PurposeApitourism is a form of tourism that deals with the culture and traditions of rural communities and can be considered one of the most sustainable methods of development and tourism. Accordingly, this study aims to identify the key factors and plausible scenarios of Iranian apitourism in the future.Design/methodology/approachThis study is applied research. For this purpose, first, by examining the theoretical foundations and interviewing experts, the key factors affecting the future of Iranian apitourism were identified. Then, using a binomial test, these factors were screened. Both critical uncertainty and DEMATEL techniques were used to select the final drivers.FindingsTwo drivers of “apitourism information system and promotional activities” and “organizing ecological infrastructure” were selected for scenario planning using critical uncertainty and DEMATEL techniques. According to these two drivers, four golden beehive, expectancy, anonymous bee and black beehive scenarios were developed. Each scenario represents a situation for apitourism in the future. According to the criteria of trend compliance, fact-based plausibility and compliance with current data, the “Black Beehive” scenario was selected as the most likely scenario. The “Golden Beehive” scenario shows the best case in terms of apitourism information system and implementation of promotional activities and organizing and providing ecological infrastructure. The “Black Beehive” scenario, on the other hand, describes an isolated and vulnerable system.Originality/valueDeveloping plausible Iranian apitourism scenarios helps key stakeholders and actors develop flexible plans for various situations.