The future impact of climate change on Alpine winter tourism: a high-resolution simulation system in the German and Austrian Alps

Abstract

This paper presents an interactive multi-agent scenario assessment model and uses it to examine the future impact of climate change on winter tourism in the German and Austrian Alps. It is based on the 10-year 2001–2010 German GLOWA (GLObal change of the WAter cycle)-Danube project, which investigated climate change impacts over a broad range of sectors, using a high-resolution model to rate tourism development in the Upper Danube catchment area under many different future climate and societal scenarios. Its regionally differentiated analysis of the effects of climate change on both tourism supply and demand is essential because tourism varies at the small scale concerning natural resources as well as market segments. The project produced simulated numbers of overnight stays and operating days for specific ski areas, thus evaluating 50-year implications for the winter tourism industry. Three different ski areas are used to describe the functionality of the whole simulation system. As the model analyses tourism development at a high level of individualisation, it sensitises policymakers to the importance of forward planning using sustainable adaptation strategies, breaking new ground by examining the many and complex interacting factors impacting winter sports tourism, including demand shifts between specific ski areas.