The future fate of the Dead Sea: Total disappearance or a dwarfed hypersaline hot lake?

Abstract

An energy balance model run on a monthly time step for 800 years was developed to predict the future level, areal extent and temperature of the Dead Sea under different scenarios of freshwater input and atmospheric boundary conditions. The model integrates energy, water and salt balances. The bathymetry of the Dead Sea was derived from high-resolution digital elevation data. Model results were verified against measured lake level for the period 1928 through 2022. Predicted levels are very close to observed values as demonstrated by three statistical measures. The monthly temperatures of the mixed layer as predicted by the model were also commensurate with observational results and satellite derived data. Future simulation predictions were verified against a novel diagnostic analytic method developed in this investigation. The newly developed method has the potential to approximate the equilibrium activity and temperature of hypersaline lakes under specified freshwater inflow and atmospheric forcings.Results show that the future level, areal extent and temperature of the Dead Sea will be contingent on freshwater inflow and the prevailing atmospheric forcings. Projections indicate that the Dead Sea will end up as a dwarfed hypersaline hot lake. The time span needed for the Dead Sea to reach a quasi-steady state equilibrium is several hundred years. Simulations results presented in this investigation are expected to be approximate given the complexity of the system, the long integration time involved, and uncertainties brought about by climate vagaries and model parameterizations.